So Much for Hopenchange

Barack Obama in 2004:


"Well, I say to them tonight, there's not a liberal America and a conservative America; there's the United States of America.

There's not a black America and white America and Latino America and Asian America; there's the United States of America."

Barack Obama this morning:

“If Latinos sit out the election instead of saying, ‘We’re gonna punish our enemies and we’re gonna reward our friends who stand with us on issues that are important to us,’ if they don’t see that kind of upsurge in voting in this election, then I think it’s gonna be harder and that’s why I think it’s so important that people focus on voting on November 2.”

Obamaegomaniac

Could this guy be more full of himself?

President Obama said during his speech today: ‘For those who question the character and cause of my nation, I ask you to look at the concrete actions we have taken in just nine months.’

Remember When Dissent Was Patriotic?

I was listening to Nancy Pelosi get hysterical today. How that women ever got into a position of authority in this country is beyond me. Anyway, before we get on to that, a look back at the first (and hopefully last) inaugural address by President Obama:

As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. Our Founding Fathers, faced with perils we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience's sake.

Now, apparently Nancy Pelosi disagrees:

"We are a free country, and this balance between freedom and safety is one that we have to carefully balance," Pelosi began. She then became emotional as she recalled the events, startling the reporters gathered for the weekly news conference.

Well apparently while dealing with foreign terrorists who like to fly planes into buildings, balancing security and rights is not a dilemma, but when dealing with those evil Republicans on the other hand, then you really have to be careful...

No Kidding

In the bizarre beyond belief category, President Obama proposes the largest deficits, by far, in US history through massive spending increases, and then notes that they are a bad idea.

May 14 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama, calling current deficit spending
“unsustainable,” warned of skyrocketing interest rates for consumers if the U.S. continues to finance government by borrowing from other countries.

“We can’t keep on just borrowing from China,” Obama said at a town-hall meeting in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, outside Albuquerque. “We have to pay interest on that debt, and that means we are mortgaging our children’s future with more and more debt.”

Holders of U.S. debt will eventually “get tired” of buying it, causing interest rates on everything from auto loans to home mortgages to increase, Obama said. “It will have a dampening effect on our economy.”

You Are Joking, Right?

Jake Tapper is about the only serious journalist left. Robert Gibbs continues to be the clown of the White House.

JENNIFER LOVEN, AP: The $100 million target figure that the president talked about today with the Cabinet, can you explain why so small? I know he talked about -- you know, you add up 100 million and 100 million, and eventually, you get somewhere, but it would take an awfully long time to add up hundred million (inaudible) in the deficit. Why not target a bigger number?

GIBBS: (Smiling) Well, I think only in Washington, D.C. is a hundred million dollars...

LOVEN: The deficit's very large. It's not a joke.

GIBBS: No, I'm...

LOVEN: The deficit's giant. $100 million really is only a step.

GIBBS: But no joke.

LOVEN: You sound like you're joking about it, but it's not funny

.GIBBS: I'm not making jokes about it. I'm being completely sincere that only in Washington, D.C. is $100 million not a lot of money. It is where I'm from. It is where I grew up. And I think it is for hundreds of millions of Americans.

LOVEN: The point is it's not a very big portion of the deficit.

TAPPER: You were talking about an appropriations bill a few weeks ago about $8 billion being minuscule -- $8 billion in earmarks. We were talking about that and you said that that...

GIBBS: Well, in terms of -- in...(CROSSTALK)

TAPPER: ...$100 million is a lot but $8 billion is small?

Great News: Obama Budget Even Worse than Thought

Remember, this is the budget that Nobel Prize Winner Paul Krugman just called "Very, very good". He might want to think about taking that back.

President Obama's ambitious plans to cut middle-class taxes, overhaul health care and expand access to college would require massive borrowing over the next decade, leaving the nation mired far deeper in debt than the White House previously estimated, congressional budget analysts said yesterday.

In the first independent analysis of Obama's budget proposal, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office concluded that Obama's policies would cause government spending to swell above historic levels even after costly programs to ease the recession and stabilize the nation's financial system have ended.

The Robert Gibbs Comedy Hour

I hope Obama doesn't get rid of this guy, he is a laugh a minute. The guy is like a one man Abbot and Costello.

Hey Tim...

While we undergo the biggest financial crisis in 70 years, the Obama administration has enough time to plan attacks against Rush Limbaugh and revamp our social systems for the next 2 decades, but they can't seem to appoint anyone to the Department of the Treasury to actually do anything. Here is a list of the appointed positions there:


Secretary
Deputy Secretary
Under Secretary — Domestic Finance
Under Secretary — International Affairs
Under Secretary — Terrorism and Financial Intelligence
Assistant Secretary — Economic Policy
Assistant Secretary — Financial Markets
Assistant Secretary (Deputy Under Secretary) — International Affairs
Assistant Secretary (Deputy Under Secretary) — Legislative Affairs
Assistant Secretary — Management and Chief Financial Officer
Assistant Secretary — Public Affairs/Director — Policy Planning
Assistant Secretary — Tax Policy
Chief Counsel — Internal Revenue Service/Assistant General Counsel for Tax
Commissioner — Internal Revenue (five-year terms of office)
General Counsel
Inspector General
Inspector General — Tax Administration
Treasurer — United States

Of all those positions, only Secretary Geithner, the guy who can't figure out Turbo Tax, has actually been appointed. Come on, it is not like there aren't any unemployed finance people out there. Hell, I would consider a couple of those positions, if you made the right offer...

Diplomatic Blunder #2

The other day I posted about how the Brits felt slighted regarding Obama's treatment of their PM. Now it appears I could start an entire series on the new administration's diplomatic idiocies.

As he headed back home from Washington, Gordon Brown must have rummaged through his party bag with disappointment.

Because all he got was a set of DVDs. Barack Obama, the leader of the world's richest country, gave the Prime Minister a box set of 25 classic American films - a gift about as exciting as a pair of socks.

Mr Brown is not thought to be a film buff, and his reaction to the box set is unknown. But it didn't really compare to the thoughtful presents he had brought along with him. The Prime Minister gave Mr Obama an ornamental pen holder made from the timbers of the Victorian anti-slave ship HMS Gannet.

What, was there a sale at Best Buy?

Obama Insults the Brits

Who would have thought we would be looking back at the comparative competence of the Bush administration.

Obama to World: Drop Dead!
The White House could easily have granted the press conference Gordon Brown so clearly craved. Though there was something a little craven, a touch humiliating about much of the build-up to this week's Prime Ministerial visit to Washington, it's reasonable to suppose that, in this instance at least, Brown may have been treated a little shabbily. The kindest way to view this is that the White House is so focused on economic fire-fighting that it has little time for diplomatic niceties;
alternatively it sends a tough reminder as to who wears the trousers in this relationship partnership. There'll be none of this Athens to Rome nonsense, Mister Brown. (Was it just a coincidence that the BBC went big on Macmillan visiting JFK in their footage last night?)

Well, maybe next time we will elect someone who has actually managed to hold down a full-time job for more than a couple of years?

Paul Krugman Then and Now

If there were still any question that Paul Krugman, large cash awards from Swedish bankers aside, should no longer be taken seriouslyas an economist, check out this editorial from last week. But first, let's set the stage by looking at his previous statements.

From 2003, when the budget deficit was a "mere" $378 billion:

As a drunk is to alcohol, the Bush administration is to budget deficits.....

It's O.K. to run a deficit during a recession, as long as the deficit is clearly temporary. But both the numbers and the administration's search for excuses tell us that there's nothing temporary about the red ink. On the contrary, we'll probably be on a deficit bender until the baby boomers retire -- and then it will get much worse.

Paul Krugman in 2004, when the deficit was $413 billion:

Well, basically we have a world-class budget deficit not just as in absolute terms of course - it's the biggest budget deficit in the history of the world - but it's a budget deficit that as a share of GDP is right up there.

It's comparable to the worst we've ever seen in this country.

It's biggest than Argentina in 2001.Which is not cyclical, there's only a little bit that's because the economy is depressed.

Mostly it's because, fundamentally, the Government isn't taking in enough money to pay for the programs and we have no strategy of dealing with it.

So, if you take a look, the only thing that sustains the US right now is the fact that people say, "Well America's a mature, advanced country and mature, advanced countries always, you know, get their financial house in order," but there's not a hint that that's on the political horizon, so I think we're looking for a collapse of confidence some time in the not-too-distant future.

Now, Paul Krugman on a Obama budget that starts out at $1.7 trillion and even in its best year never dips below $500 billion, more than any Bush deficit:

But I don't blame Obama for leaving some big questions unanswered in this budget. There's only so much long-run thinking the political system can handle in the midst of a severe crisis; he has probably taken on all he can, for now. And this budget looks very, very good.

In fact that is even the title of the editorial, in big bold letters:

Krugman: This budget looks very, very good

Amazingly he even spins things to make it look like Bush had it easy as a result of the real estate bubble:

Bear in mind that from 2005 to 2007, that is, in the three years before the crisis, the federal deficit averaged only $243 billion a year. Now, during those years, revenues were inflated, to some degree, by the housing bubble.

By contrast I am not aware of him ever pointing out that the surplus of the late 90s was mainly due to capital gains resulting from the stock market bubble, even thoough most serious economists admit it was, to Krugman it was purely the genius of Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin.

And finally he manages to spin this once more:

But won't the deficit be swollen by interest on the debt run-up over the next few years? Not as much as you might think. Interest rates on long-term government debt are less than 4 percent, so even a trillion dollars of additional debt adds less than $40 billion a year to future deficits.

Oh, great. You ruin the economy to the point that the Fed drops interest rates to effectively zero, and scare everone from investing in anything other than treasuries, then take pride in the fact that the national debt is cheap to finance.

And they gave a Nobel Prize to this guy?

Maybe They Should Outsource Chris Matthews

MSNBC host Chris Matthews is now not only trying to spin his bizarre "Oh God!" outburst when Governor Bobby Jindal spoke last night, but he added to this by claiming that the Republicans "outsourced" the speech to him. Now I will give the benefit of the doubt that Matthews was not making some cheap crack about Jindal's Indian heritage, even though Democrats can somehow find racial offense in a political cartoon about a chimpanzee, but I will point out what a stupid comment it is.



The fact is, and being a longtime political pundit Matthews should know this, having a governor give the rebutal is not only not unusual, but the norm. Let's look at who the Democrats had give the rebutals under Bush.

2008 Kathleen Sebelius governor of Kansas
2007 Senator Jim Webb
2006 Tim Kaine governor of Virginia
2005 Senator Harry Reid and Representative Nancy Pelosi
2004 Representative Nancy Pelosi and Senator Tom Daschle
2003 Governor Gary Locke of Washington State
2002 Representative Richard Gephardt

So 3 out of the last 7 (the first, like yesterday's was technically not a State of the Union), and 2 out of the last 3.

The Presidential Fearmonger

As I have discussed before, this rhetoric by President Obama is both irresponsible and unpresidential. Let's hope it stops.

President Barack Obama has turned fearmongering into an art form. He has repeatedly raised the specter of another Great Depression. First, he did so to win votes in the November election. He has done so again recently to sway congressional votes for his stimulus package.

In his remarks, every gloomy statistic on the economy becomes a harbinger of doom. As he tells it, today's economy is the worst since the Great Depression. Without his Recovery and Reinvestment Act, he says, the economy will fall back into that abyss and may never recover.

This fearmongering may be good politics, but it is bad history and bad economics. It is bad history because our current economic woes don't come close to those of the 1930s. At worst, a comparison to the 1981-82 recession might be appropriate. Consider the job losses that Mr. Obama always cites. In the last year, the U.S. economy shed 3.4 million jobs. That's a grim statistic for sure, but represents just 2.2% of the labor force. From November 1981 to October 1982, 2.4 million jobs were lost -- fewer in number than today, but the labor force was smaller. So 1981-82 job losses totaled 2.2% of the labor force, the same as now.

Oddly Enough, Not a Single Woman Reported Dreaming About Joe Biden

Sorry, but this is kinda creepy.

The other night I dreamt of Barack Obama. He was taking a shower right when I needed to get into the bathroom to shave my legs, and then he was being yelled at by my husband, Max, for smoking in the house. It was not clear whether Max was feeling protective of the president’s health or jealous because of the cigarette.

The other day a friend of mine confided that in the weeks leading up to the election, the Obamas’ apparent joy as a couple had made her just miserable. Their marriage looked so much happier than hers. Their life seemed so perfect. “I was at a place where I was tempted daily to throttle my husband,” she said. “This coincided with Michelle saying the most beautiful things about Barack. Each time I heard her speak about him I got tears in my eyes — because I felt so far away from that kind of bliss in my own life and perhaps even more, because I was so moved by her expressions of devotion to him. And unlike previous presidential couples, they are our age, have children the same age and (just imagine the stress of daily life on the campaign) by all accounts should have been fighting even more than we were.”

The Wisdom of Joe Biden

If I had the time I would create a blog dedicated to all of the stupid things that Joe Biden says, but that would suck up my time even more than talking about conspiracy theorists.

But let me move for a second to what I was supposed to talk about. I was asked to talk about foreign policy. You know that old joke, you know, an expert is anyone from out of town with a briefcase? I'm out of town, but I don't have a briefcase, and I know a lot of you know as much and more about foreign policy as I do, but it's like that old joke, I hope you Texans aren't offended, but in Delaware that old joke about the Texan who said ‘I don't now much about art but I know what I like?’ Well, I may not know much about it, but I know what I think, and I know what I think we have to do.

It has got so bad that even the One is starting to give him the smackdown.  He should lock him in a closet, but then again He picked him to be VP.

A Trade War?

Earlier I brought up the question of a possible trade war. Burton Malkiel, the author of the excellent A Random Walk Down Wall Street, addresses the issue further in today's Journal:

As the world-wide recession deepens, protectionist sentiments are rising. The House of Representatives' version of the economic stimulus bill contains a provision that only American-made steel and other products be used for the infrastructure projects. Wrapped in the cloak of "Buy American" patriotism, the Senate version of the bill contains even stronger anti-free-trade provisions.

This Buy American momentum is bad economics, and by threatening to destabilize trade and capital flows, it risks turning a global recession into a 1930s-style depression. Asked about Buy American on Tuesday, President Barack Obama told Fox News that "we can't send a protectionist message." He said on ABC News that he doesn't want anything in the stimulus bill that is "going to trigger a trade war." He's right.

Yes, I would agree that he doesn't want a trade war, but that doesn't necessarily mean he won't start one. In reality it is really up to Congress, and they do not seem settled on the matter.

US senators voted overwhelmingly, late on Wednesday, to require the "Buy American" provisions "be applied in a manner consistent with US obligations under international agreements".

However, an amendment put forward by Republican Senator John McCain which would have removed the clause altogether was defeated.

Speaking before a vote on that amendment, Mr McCain warned that if the provisions were passed it would "only be a matter of time before we face an array of similar protectionism from other countries - from 'Buy European' to 'Buy Japanese' and more".

The problem with this of course is that "in a manner consistent with US obligations" is a matter of interpretation, and any law which promotes favoritism towards US companies can still provoke a backlash, as other countries will just do the same thing.

President Obama could of course veto the bill if he feels the language is too strong, but he is not very likely to do that after arguing that not passing the bill will bring on a catastrophe.

This is Transparency?

Geez, this guy makes Bush seem eloquent.

More On the Great Depression

I discussed recently how I thought the government helped make the Great Depression even greater. Helpfully an editorial in the Wall Street Journal today by economists Harold Cole and Lee Ohanian assists me in making my case.

The goal of the New Deal was to get Americans back to work. But the New Deal didn't restore employment. In fact, there was even less work on average during the New Deal than before FDR took office. Total hours worked per adult, including government employees, were 18% below their 1929 level between 1930-32, but were 23% lower on average during the New Deal (1933-39). Private hours worked were even lower after FDR took office, averaging 27% below their 1929 level, compared to 18% lower between in 1930-32.

Even comparing hours worked at the end of 1930s to those at the beginning of FDR's presidency doesn't paint a picture of recovery. Total hours worked per adult in 1939 remained about 21% below their 1929 level, compared to a decline of 27% in 1933. And it wasn't just work that remained scarce during the New Deal. Per capita consumption did not recover at all, remaining 25% below its trend level throughout the New Deal, and per-capita nonresidential investment averaged about 60% below trend. The Great Depression clearly continued long after FDR took office.

Unfortunately not everyone reads history. And one of those people we just elected president.

The European Union warned the US yesterday against plunging the world into depression by adopting a planned “Buy American” policy, intensifying fears of a trade war.

The EU threatened to retaliate if the US Congress went ahead with sweeping measures in its $800 billion (£554 billion) stimulus plan to restrict spending to American goods and services.

Gordon Brown was caught in the crossfire as John Bruton, the EU Ambassador to Washington, said that “history has shown us” where the closing of markets leads — a clear reference to the Depression of the 1930s, triggered by US protectionist laws.

Can We Question Their Patriotism Yet?

Vice President Joe Biden, back during the campaign:

Noting that wealthier Americans would indeed pay more, Biden said: "It's time to be patriotic ... time to jump in, time to be part of the deal, time to help get America out of the rut."

Which makes all their appointments interesting:

The failure by the former Senate majority leader to pay taxes on the free use of a car and driver for several years, first reported Friday by ABC News, complicates Daschle's nomination and erodes the chances that it will sail through the Senate.

Daschle said tonight he did not realize his car service was income and not a gift from a good friend.

After the closed-door session, the Democratic senators on the Finance Committee expressed support en masse for their former colleague.

"There is a completely understandable, rational, reasonable and acceptable explanation" for his mistakes," Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., said.

As I said earlier, how scary is it for a $700 billion bailout being run by a guy who can't figure out how to use TurboTax.

Obama Does Have Superpowers!

Faster than a speeding bullet, stronger than a locomotive... able to time travel. From the new White House website.

President Obama swiftly responded to Hurricane Katrina.

Yeah, OK, buddy.