Via CNN today:
PHILADELPHIA, Pennsylvania (AP) -- Nancy Carroll didn't know schools were giving military recruiters her family's contact information until a recruiter called her 17-year-old granddaughter.
That didn't sit well with Carroll, who believes recruiters unfairly target minority students. So she joined activists across the country who are urging families to notify schools that they don't want their children's contact information given out.
"People of color who go into the military are put on the front line," said the 67-year-old Carroll, who is black.
But this simply isn't true. In fact it is whites that are disproportionately represented on the front lines. Even if it were true, so what, is it supposed to be a bad thing that minorities are given more opportunities! Here is a good rundown of the truth on this issue.
Friday, June 17, 2005
Does Gary Trudeau know anything about history?
Today's Doonesbury has a continuing skit about a CIA "torture" class, in which one of the students asks.
Yeah, sir, I am a bit confused, World War II was a "new type of war" too, over 50 million people were killed. Yet somehow we managed to defeat a lawless enemy without resorting to torture. What is the difference between now and then?
To which the instructor replied with the punchline.
A spineless president.
Now I understand that this is just a comic strip, but presumably Trudeau is trying to make a serious comparison here, therein lies the humor. The fact is though, that there was torture and abuse of prisoners by US and Allied troops in WWII, just like there are in all wars, unfortunately. Given the scale of the war, the abuses were way beyond what we see now, there just wasn't any handwringing self flagellation over it. There were even cases of enemy prisoners being shot on site, but it was overlooked as just the unfortunate side effects of a bloody war.
The biggest irony of this lies in the fact that people are going crazy over the internment of 500 or so terrorists, captured on foreign battlefields and placed at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Amnesty International hyperbolically called it "the gulag of our times". Senator Durbin compared it to Nazi Germany and Pol Pot. But what did this "spineless president" FDR do during WWII? He interned over 100,000 Japanese Americans, for years at a time, all without charges! I guess Mr. Trudeau forgot about that part.
Yeah, sir, I am a bit confused, World War II was a "new type of war" too, over 50 million people were killed. Yet somehow we managed to defeat a lawless enemy without resorting to torture. What is the difference between now and then?
To which the instructor replied with the punchline.
A spineless president.
Now I understand that this is just a comic strip, but presumably Trudeau is trying to make a serious comparison here, therein lies the humor. The fact is though, that there was torture and abuse of prisoners by US and Allied troops in WWII, just like there are in all wars, unfortunately. Given the scale of the war, the abuses were way beyond what we see now, there just wasn't any handwringing self flagellation over it. There were even cases of enemy prisoners being shot on site, but it was overlooked as just the unfortunate side effects of a bloody war.
The biggest irony of this lies in the fact that people are going crazy over the internment of 500 or so terrorists, captured on foreign battlefields and placed at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Amnesty International hyperbolically called it "the gulag of our times". Senator Durbin compared it to Nazi Germany and Pol Pot. But what did this "spineless president" FDR do during WWII? He interned over 100,000 Japanese Americans, for years at a time, all without charges! I guess Mr. Trudeau forgot about that part.
Thursday, June 16, 2005
Well how else do you expect us to interpret it Sean?
I saw this on LGF. Somehow I doubt if people were running through Washington D.C. chanting "Death to Iran" he would fault Iran for taking it literally. Heck, we are considered racists if we merely make the observation that terrorists tend to be Muslims.
The actor, who visited Iraq' name before and after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 and wrote an account of his second trip for the Chronicle, has largely declined to talk to the media since arriving in Iran.
But he told a film student during a visit to Iran's Film Museum in Tehran on Monday that the "Death to America" slogan chanted each week at Friday Prayers hurt Iran-U.S. relations.
"I understand the nature of where it comes from and what its intention is," he said. "But I don't think it's productive because I think the message goes to the American people and it is interpreted very literally."
The actor, who visited Iraq' name before and after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 and wrote an account of his second trip for the Chronicle, has largely declined to talk to the media since arriving in Iran.
But he told a film student during a visit to Iran's Film Museum in Tehran on Monday that the "Death to America" slogan chanted each week at Friday Prayers hurt Iran-U.S. relations.
"I understand the nature of where it comes from and what its intention is," he said. "But I don't think it's productive because I think the message goes to the American people and it is interpreted very literally."
Inflation and the Euro
The National Review has a rather interesting, albeit somewhat technical (part of my grad school prep), article on the Euro as a case study for the effect of monetary supply and economic activity on inflation. I have always maintained that Greenspan, although he has done a pretty good job, is way too paranoid about wage pressure's effect on inflation, and as a result helped cause the 2001 recession through excessive rate hikes. This article doesn't address that directly, but I feel somewhat vindicated.
Even though inflation is undeniably a monetary phenomenon, a shocking number of policymakers at the Federal Reserve and other institutions ’round the globe still cling to the view that “too much” economic activity is the culprit. For them, inflation’s akin to steam issuing from the radiator of an overheated engine. Thankfully, a test of the thesis is now readily available in the form of Nobel laureate economist Robert Mundell’s invention — the euro.
In sharing a common currency, the dozen member states of Europe’s Economic & Monetary Union (EMU) are governed by the same monetary policy (much like the 50 states of the U.S.), but this uniformity doesn’t stretch to all policy matters. The economic, regulatory, and fiscal regimes of EMU countries, while reflecting certain unifying directives from Brussels, don’t necessarily align, and the differences, particularly as regards taxation, often bear directly on economic growth. The eurozone thus can serve as a sort of proving ground of economic and monetary theory.
Even though inflation is undeniably a monetary phenomenon, a shocking number of policymakers at the Federal Reserve and other institutions ’round the globe still cling to the view that “too much” economic activity is the culprit. For them, inflation’s akin to steam issuing from the radiator of an overheated engine. Thankfully, a test of the thesis is now readily available in the form of Nobel laureate economist Robert Mundell’s invention — the euro.
In sharing a common currency, the dozen member states of Europe’s Economic & Monetary Union (EMU) are governed by the same monetary policy (much like the 50 states of the U.S.), but this uniformity doesn’t stretch to all policy matters. The economic, regulatory, and fiscal regimes of EMU countries, while reflecting certain unifying directives from Brussels, don’t necessarily align, and the differences, particularly as regards taxation, often bear directly on economic growth. The eurozone thus can serve as a sort of proving ground of economic and monetary theory.
Wednesday, June 15, 2005
No grade inflation here
They may have some smart kids, but come on, there is no way that 10% of your graduates should have a 4.0, for their entire high school existence!
Back in the day, class valedictorian was the standout scholar of the senior class, the acknowledged brain.
This year's 406-member graduating class at Garfield High School features 44 valedictorians. Forty-four students with perfect 4.0 grade-point averages who, over seven semesters of mostly honors and Advanced Placement classes, have never earned less than an A.
Even for a school with a reputation as an academic powerhouse, it's a record number: Last year Garfield had 30 valedictorians; the year before, 27.
Skeptics say that so many students with perfect 4.0 GPAs is evidence of grade inflation; admirers say it's the product of smart, hard-working students at a school that encourages academic success.
Back in the day, class valedictorian was the standout scholar of the senior class, the acknowledged brain.
This year's 406-member graduating class at Garfield High School features 44 valedictorians. Forty-four students with perfect 4.0 grade-point averages who, over seven semesters of mostly honors and Advanced Placement classes, have never earned less than an A.
Even for a school with a reputation as an academic powerhouse, it's a record number: Last year Garfield had 30 valedictorians; the year before, 27.
Skeptics say that so many students with perfect 4.0 GPAs is evidence of grade inflation; admirers say it's the product of smart, hard-working students at a school that encourages academic success.
Tuesday, June 14, 2005
What is it with getting an economics PhD that makes you an idiot moonbat
First Krugman and DeLong, now this guy.
A former Bush team member during his first administration is now voicing serious doubts about the collapse of the World Trade Center on 9-11. Former chief economist for the Department of Labor during President George W. Bush's first term Morgan Reynolds comments that the official story about the collapse of the WTC is "bogus" and that it is more likely that a controlled demolition destroyed the Twin Towers and adjacent Building No. 7. Reynolds, who also served as director of the Criminal Justice Center at the National Center for Policy Analysis in Dallas and is now professor emeritus at Texas A&M University said, "If demolition destroyed three steel skyscrapers at the World Trade Center on 9/11, then the case for an 'inside job' and a government attack on America would be compelling."
Check out his stunning writings here. Where among other things he makes the following claims:
The Report never confronts 9/11 skeptics on any issue, like, say, a Boeing 757 (American Airlines Flight 77) allegedly crashing into the first floor of the Pentagon and completely disappearing without a trace on the lawn through a hole in the wall no bigger than 18 feet in diameter.
Let me ask you dear readers, does this look like no bigger than 18 feet in diameter?
.
And then this gem:
And why did the South Tower collapse 29 minutes earlier than North Tower, despite being hit 17 minutes later? No explanation.
Uhh, here is an explanation, the plane struck the south tower at a lower point than the north tower, thus more weight was on the damaged area, causing it to buckle earlier. Of course this explanation requires complex scientific knowledge of such arcane subjects such as GRAVITY, which apparently the professor cannot grasp.
Take this picture for example. Keep in mind that those vertical gray stripes are supporting beams for the building, not just the wall. The WTC was unique in that much of its supporting structure was on the exterior of the building. Observe the airplane shaped hole where all the beams are missing, severed by the airplane's impact. Keep in mind that it was travelling over 500MPH and the plane continued clear to the other side of the building, ejecting debris out the other side and obviously causing a lot of damage in between.
.
We have been worried about the state of higher education as it relates to the students. Maybe we should start worrying about the professors?
UPDATE Texas A & M makes a statement clarifying Mr. Reynold's (I won't honor him with the term Dr.) status. Maybe there is hope for academia in America.
The following is a statement from Texas A&M University regarding recent news reports about the collapse of the World Trade Center on 9-11.
Dr. Morgan Reynolds is retired from Texas A&M University, but holds the title of Professor Emeritus-an honorary title bestowed upon select tenured faculty, who have retired with ten or more years of service. Additionally, contrary to some written reports, while some faculty emeriti are allocated office space at Texas A&M, Dr. Reynolds does not have an office on the Texas A&M campus. Any statements made by Dr. Reynolds are in his capacity as a private citizen and do not represent the views of Texas A&M University. Below is a statement released yesterday by Dr. Robert M. Gates, President of Texas A&M University:
"The American people know what they saw with their own eyes on September 11, 2001. To suggest any kind of government conspiracy in the events of that day goes beyond the pale.”
UPDATE 2: An LGF reader pointed out who Dr. Gates used to work for. Let the conspiracy theories begin! Err... continue...
UPDATE 3: FEMA Another great source of info on the WTC collapse.
A former Bush team member during his first administration is now voicing serious doubts about the collapse of the World Trade Center on 9-11. Former chief economist for the Department of Labor during President George W. Bush's first term Morgan Reynolds comments that the official story about the collapse of the WTC is "bogus" and that it is more likely that a controlled demolition destroyed the Twin Towers and adjacent Building No. 7. Reynolds, who also served as director of the Criminal Justice Center at the National Center for Policy Analysis in Dallas and is now professor emeritus at Texas A&M University said, "If demolition destroyed three steel skyscrapers at the World Trade Center on 9/11, then the case for an 'inside job' and a government attack on America would be compelling."
Check out his stunning writings here. Where among other things he makes the following claims:
The Report never confronts 9/11 skeptics on any issue, like, say, a Boeing 757 (American Airlines Flight 77) allegedly crashing into the first floor of the Pentagon and completely disappearing without a trace on the lawn through a hole in the wall no bigger than 18 feet in diameter.
Let me ask you dear readers, does this look like no bigger than 18 feet in diameter?
.And then this gem:
And why did the South Tower collapse 29 minutes earlier than North Tower, despite being hit 17 minutes later? No explanation.
Uhh, here is an explanation, the plane struck the south tower at a lower point than the north tower, thus more weight was on the damaged area, causing it to buckle earlier. Of course this explanation requires complex scientific knowledge of such arcane subjects such as GRAVITY, which apparently the professor cannot grasp.
Take this picture for example. Keep in mind that those vertical gray stripes are supporting beams for the building, not just the wall. The WTC was unique in that much of its supporting structure was on the exterior of the building. Observe the airplane shaped hole where all the beams are missing, severed by the airplane's impact. Keep in mind that it was travelling over 500MPH and the plane continued clear to the other side of the building, ejecting debris out the other side and obviously causing a lot of damage in between.
.We have been worried about the state of higher education as it relates to the students. Maybe we should start worrying about the professors?
UPDATE Texas A & M makes a statement clarifying Mr. Reynold's (I won't honor him with the term Dr.) status. Maybe there is hope for academia in America.
The following is a statement from Texas A&M University regarding recent news reports about the collapse of the World Trade Center on 9-11.
Dr. Morgan Reynolds is retired from Texas A&M University, but holds the title of Professor Emeritus-an honorary title bestowed upon select tenured faculty, who have retired with ten or more years of service. Additionally, contrary to some written reports, while some faculty emeriti are allocated office space at Texas A&M, Dr. Reynolds does not have an office on the Texas A&M campus. Any statements made by Dr. Reynolds are in his capacity as a private citizen and do not represent the views of Texas A&M University. Below is a statement released yesterday by Dr. Robert M. Gates, President of Texas A&M University:
"The American people know what they saw with their own eyes on September 11, 2001. To suggest any kind of government conspiracy in the events of that day goes beyond the pale.”
UPDATE 2: An LGF reader pointed out who Dr. Gates used to work for. Let the conspiracy theories begin! Err... continue...
UPDATE 3: FEMA Another great source of info on the WTC collapse.
Monday, June 13, 2005
Businessweek on upward mobility
In contrast to Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong's shrill fact challenged hysterics on the demise of the middle class, Businessweek has a good commentary on recent gains for all Americans.
Here's what we do know: Over the past decade, virtually every traditionally disadvantaged group made gains in absolute terms. Take, for example, families headed by immigrants who entered the country in the 1980s. The poverty rate for such families dropped sharply, from 26.6% in 1995 to 16.4% in 2003, the latest numbers available. Similarly, a combination of welfare reform and tight labor markets helped drive down the poverty rate for female-headed households with children from 46.1% in 1993 to 35.5% in 2003. That may not seem like much, but it beats the total lack of progress in the previous decade. And a new book, Moving Up or Moving On: Who Advances in the Low-Wage Labor Market?, uses a new set of data to look at the wage history of a group of low-earning workers from 1993 to 2001. Adjusted for inflation, those people saw their average earnings more than double over those nine years.
Here's what we do know: Over the past decade, virtually every traditionally disadvantaged group made gains in absolute terms. Take, for example, families headed by immigrants who entered the country in the 1980s. The poverty rate for such families dropped sharply, from 26.6% in 1995 to 16.4% in 2003, the latest numbers available. Similarly, a combination of welfare reform and tight labor markets helped drive down the poverty rate for female-headed households with children from 46.1% in 1993 to 35.5% in 2003. That may not seem like much, but it beats the total lack of progress in the previous decade. And a new book, Moving Up or Moving On: Who Advances in the Low-Wage Labor Market?, uses a new set of data to look at the wage history of a group of low-earning workers from 1993 to 2001. Adjusted for inflation, those people saw their average earnings more than double over those nine years.
Christopher Hitchens on torture and more
One of the coherent liberals, in the interest of equal time.
The forces of al-Qaida and its surrogate organizations are not signatory to the conventions and naturally express contempt for them. They have no battle order or uniform and are represented by no authority with which terms can be negotiated. Nor can they claim, as actual guerrilla movements like the Algerian FLN have done in the past, to be the future representatives of their countries or peoples. In Afghanistan and Iraq, they sought to destroy the electoral process that alone can confer true legitimacy, and they are in many, if not most, cases not even citizens of the countries concerned. Their announced aim is the destruction of all nonbelievers, and their avowed method is indiscriminate and random murder. They are more like pirates, hijackers, or torturers—three categories of people who have in the past been declared outside the protection of any law.
The forces of al-Qaida and its surrogate organizations are not signatory to the conventions and naturally express contempt for them. They have no battle order or uniform and are represented by no authority with which terms can be negotiated. Nor can they claim, as actual guerrilla movements like the Algerian FLN have done in the past, to be the future representatives of their countries or peoples. In Afghanistan and Iraq, they sought to destroy the electoral process that alone can confer true legitimacy, and they are in many, if not most, cases not even citizens of the countries concerned. Their announced aim is the destruction of all nonbelievers, and their avowed method is indiscriminate and random murder. They are more like pirates, hijackers, or torturers—three categories of people who have in the past been declared outside the protection of any law.
More on income inequality
Powerline complete decimates Krugman on this issue. If he were a prisoner, Amnesty International would be complaining about this one.
I can't resist this parting shot: Krugman writes darkly that "Since 1980 in particular, U.S. government policies have consistently favored the wealthy at the expense of working families..." Let's test Krugman's thesis by referring to his apparent gold standard, the Census Bureau's median family income data. Let's refer to the data for "Married Couple-Families" to avoid the demographic distortion described above. Here are the numbers: during the decade from 1970 to 1980, median income rose 13.4% in constant 2003 dollars. During the twenty years beginning in 1980, median income rose an average of 13.5% per decade. Which shows, I guess, how government policies devastated the middle class beginning in the last year of the Carter administration.
I can't resist this parting shot: Krugman writes darkly that "Since 1980 in particular, U.S. government policies have consistently favored the wealthy at the expense of working families..." Let's test Krugman's thesis by referring to his apparent gold standard, the Census Bureau's median family income data. Let's refer to the data for "Married Couple-Families" to avoid the demographic distortion described above. Here are the numbers: during the decade from 1970 to 1980, median income rose 13.4% in constant 2003 dollars. During the twenty years beginning in 1980, median income rose an average of 13.5% per decade. Which shows, I guess, how government policies devastated the middle class beginning in the last year of the Carter administration.
Friday, June 10, 2005
Paul Krugman continues his nostalgia
Krugman is nostalgic for the wonderful days of the 70s again, as Econopundit points out. Makes you wonder if he also misses disco and bellbottom jeans. I discussed this earlier here, and here.
Working families have seen little if any progress over the past 30 years. Adjusted for inflation, the income of the median family doubled between 1947 and 1973. But it rose only 22 percent from 1973 to 2003, and much of that gain was the result of wives' entering the paid labor force or working longer hours, not rising wages.
Maybe Professor Krugman has never heard of the concept of diminishing marginal return. I don't have an economics PhD, but doesn't it stand to reason that as an economy develops through industrialization, its rate of growth would diminish? That is why China is able to attain growth rates pushing 10%, while the US is doing good at 4%. Why doesn't the good professor compare our income growth with equivalent economies over the last 30 years. Say Europe for example. Once again, I will post this easy to read graph, without any "shaping, slicing and selectively presenting data", and would someone please explain to me how things are getting worse for the American worker.
Working families have seen little if any progress over the past 30 years. Adjusted for inflation, the income of the median family doubled between 1947 and 1973. But it rose only 22 percent from 1973 to 2003, and much of that gain was the result of wives' entering the paid labor force or working longer hours, not rising wages.
Maybe Professor Krugman has never heard of the concept of diminishing marginal return. I don't have an economics PhD, but doesn't it stand to reason that as an economy develops through industrialization, its rate of growth would diminish? That is why China is able to attain growth rates pushing 10%, while the US is doing good at 4%. Why doesn't the good professor compare our income growth with equivalent economies over the last 30 years. Say Europe for example. Once again, I will post this easy to read graph, without any "shaping, slicing and selectively presenting data", and would someone please explain to me how things are getting worse for the American worker.
Unemployment Rate by Month 1975-2005
UPDATE: Some other good posts on this article. Brainster and Just One Minute.
UPDATE 2: I was thinking about this claim "But it rose only 22 percent from 1973 to 2003, and much of that gain was the result of wives' entering the paid labor force or working longer hours, not rising wages. " With a focus on the working longer hours part. I checked out the BLS, and although I could not find the exact numbers I was looking for, but I did find this comparison, titled "On the decline of average weekly hours worked" for a relatively equivalent time period, 1964-1999.
The Current Population Survey (CPS) shows that there has been little change in average weekly hours worked; from 1964 to 1999, there was a decline of 0.5 percent in the average weekly hours at work in nonagricultural industries.
The CES shows an even bigger decrease, which the author says is misleading. I will try and find more recent numbers, but regardless this does not indicate a rise in working hours which would partially explain away a 22% gain in average income.
Thursday, June 09, 2005
Stolen Valor: The Iraq Years?
Just this Tuesday I finished reading B. G. Burkett's excellent book Stolen Valor, which describes how, for various reasons, anti-war groups created the myth that large amounts of Vietnam veterans suffer from PTSD, and as a result are ticking time bombs on the edge of mass murder. Burkett, through some detailed research described how so called Vietnam veterans used this as an excuse for their crimes, such as murder, assault and rape, even though many of them were not even veterans, had never been to Vietnam, or had been assigned to relatively safe non-combat jobs. After reading this I asked myself how long it would take before "soldiers" real or imagined would start blaming the Iraq war for their problems and misdeeds.
Well, the answer is two days. On the way to the gym tonight I hear Brian Suits discuss this case on KVI.
TACOMA, Wash. -- A man accused of raping a woman who was working as an escort is blaming his behavior on his experience as a soldier in Iraq, KIRO 7 Eyewitness News reported.
Dagan Walters, 27, of Olympia, arranged to meet a call girl at a Tacoma motel, police said.
He allegedly took her captive at knifepoint, taped her mouth shut and raped her.
She escaped by grabbing the knife and fleeing the motel room.
His defense attorney said when Walters came home from the war in Iraq, he suffered post traumatic stress and alcohol abuse.
Walters' family is trying to get him admitted to a veterans' hospital.
I looked his name up on Army Knowledge Online, which basically lists everyone in the Army, active or reserve, and it had no listing of his name. But it is possible he is (was) a Marine, or is not listed for some other legitimate reason. So I have no way to know definitively whether his story is true or not, although I have a hard time buying the story that being in Iraq causes you to call up prostitutes, assault, and rape them, but hopefully the prosecuter, and the media will investigate this guy and find out whether his story is true or not. More likely it will come down to bloggers or people like Mr. Burkett. Burkett describes how to request info on people through the Freedom of Information Act here, provided you know enough about the person. Regardless, someone has to keep people like this from besmirching the good name of the soldiers who sacrificed so much in Iraq and other wars.
Well, the answer is two days. On the way to the gym tonight I hear Brian Suits discuss this case on KVI.
TACOMA, Wash. -- A man accused of raping a woman who was working as an escort is blaming his behavior on his experience as a soldier in Iraq, KIRO 7 Eyewitness News reported.
Dagan Walters, 27, of Olympia, arranged to meet a call girl at a Tacoma motel, police said.
He allegedly took her captive at knifepoint, taped her mouth shut and raped her.
She escaped by grabbing the knife and fleeing the motel room.
His defense attorney said when Walters came home from the war in Iraq, he suffered post traumatic stress and alcohol abuse.
Walters' family is trying to get him admitted to a veterans' hospital.
I looked his name up on Army Knowledge Online, which basically lists everyone in the Army, active or reserve, and it had no listing of his name. But it is possible he is (was) a Marine, or is not listed for some other legitimate reason. So I have no way to know definitively whether his story is true or not, although I have a hard time buying the story that being in Iraq causes you to call up prostitutes, assault, and rape them, but hopefully the prosecuter, and the media will investigate this guy and find out whether his story is true or not. More likely it will come down to bloggers or people like Mr. Burkett. Burkett describes how to request info on people through the Freedom of Information Act here, provided you know enough about the person. Regardless, someone has to keep people like this from besmirching the good name of the soldiers who sacrificed so much in Iraq and other wars.
Wednesday, June 08, 2005
It couldn't have happened to a nicer liberal billionaire
I caught this story on Man Without Qualities. With the recent sharp drop of the Euro against the dollar, after a longer and larger run up, one story that hasn't really been covered much is the role of currency speculators in this. Well, when things were going well they made money, but there should be some interesting numbers at the end of the next couple of quarters. From Forbes:
Warren Buffett's vote of no confidence in U.S. fiscal policies is up to $20 billion. The dollar has fallen savagely against the euro for the past three years, and the trade deficit is running $55 billion a month. Is the currency rout over? Can the trade deficit be fixed with a rise in interest rates or an upward revaluation of the Chinese currency? Warren Buffett, the world's most visible dollar bear, says the answer to both these questions is no. His bet against the dollar, reported at $12 billion in his last annual report (for Dec. 31, 2003), has gotten all the bigger.
Now his Berkshire Hathaway has a $20 billion bet in favor of the euro, the pound and six other foreign currencies. Buffett has for a long time been lecturing fellow Americans about their bad habit of borrowing from abroad to live well today. He made a big stink about his currency trades in his March 2004 letter to shareholders. FORBES phoned him recently for an update, hoping for the news that the Scold of Omaha had softened his views on the decline of the dollar. What we got was more doom and gloom, more than we have ever heard from the man. In other words, he is not about to cover his short position on the dollar.
Right now the Euro is right above the $1.20 mark that Buffett said he stopped buying at, but if recent trends continue, well, Paul Allen might regain his position as the world's second richest man.
Warren Buffett's vote of no confidence in U.S. fiscal policies is up to $20 billion. The dollar has fallen savagely against the euro for the past three years, and the trade deficit is running $55 billion a month. Is the currency rout over? Can the trade deficit be fixed with a rise in interest rates or an upward revaluation of the Chinese currency? Warren Buffett, the world's most visible dollar bear, says the answer to both these questions is no. His bet against the dollar, reported at $12 billion in his last annual report (for Dec. 31, 2003), has gotten all the bigger.
Now his Berkshire Hathaway has a $20 billion bet in favor of the euro, the pound and six other foreign currencies. Buffett has for a long time been lecturing fellow Americans about their bad habit of borrowing from abroad to live well today. He made a big stink about his currency trades in his March 2004 letter to shareholders. FORBES phoned him recently for an update, hoping for the news that the Scold of Omaha had softened his views on the decline of the dollar. What we got was more doom and gloom, more than we have ever heard from the man. In other words, he is not about to cover his short position on the dollar.
Right now the Euro is right above the $1.20 mark that Buffett said he stopped buying at, but if recent trends continue, well, Paul Allen might regain his position as the world's second richest man.
Floyd McKay continues his journalistic flexibility
Once again, the journalism professor emeritus continues his loose connection to the facts in the Seattle Times, see my earlier post here. In his latest article he concludes with what has been all too common in the mainstream media nowadays, a gratutious attack on their biggest threat, blogging.
Journalism students, at least in my experience, are less interested in hard-scrabble reporting and more interested in supporting roles. Just as Watergate fired up a generation of would-be investigators, so has the Internet attracted a generation that would rather work online than by knocking on actual doors and talking to actual sources.
Revival of the Watergate story reminds us that no amount of blogging and Web browsing can replace face-to-face contact with real sources, and no portfolio of computer expertise rivals an inquiring and skeptical mind and just plain hard work.
This is all too ironic, because a few paragraphs earlier, McKay makes the following statement, which a quick Internet search proves to be rather inaccurate, one could even say false.
Investigative reporting is practiced, and practiced well, at a handful of major newspapers and magazines. Seymour Hersh, who uncovered the Mai Lai massacre in 1969, revealed the Abu Ghraib scandal 35 years later for The New Yorker.
Yes, Hersh wrote about Abu Ghraib in the New Yorker, but as Hersh himself explained in that very article, he did not "reveal" the scandal, it was 60 minutes that did so.
After the story broke on CBS last week, the Pentagon announced that Major General Geoffrey Miller, the new head of the Iraqi prison system, had arrived in Baghdad and was on the job.
In fact it was ironically Mary Mapes, that very same 60 Minutes producer who produced the famous "fake but accurate" Bush Air National Guard memo. But even that isn't entirely accurate, since CNN had reported several months earlier that the Army was investigating reports of abuse, including pictures of detainees. The Mudville Gazette (yes, those evil bloggers) has a good round up of this story. Perhaps in the modern media world overhyping and publicizing a story is now the same as breaking it, or perhaps Mr. McKay should spend more time "blogging and web browsing" Maybe then he could get his stories straight?
UPDATE: For an example of Seymour Hersh's "well practiced" investigative reporting techniques, check out this story.
There are two Hershes, really. Seymour M. is the byline. He navigates readers through the byzantine world of America’s overlapping national-security bureaucracies, and his stories form what Hersh has taken to calling an “alternative history” of the Bush administration since September 11, 2001.
Then there’s Sy. He’s the public speaker, the pundit. On the podium, Sy is willing to tell a story that’s not quite right, in order to convey a Larger Truth. “Sometimes I change events, dates, and places in a certain way to protect people,” Hersh told me. “I can’t fudge what I write. But I can certainly fudge what I say.”
Journalism students, at least in my experience, are less interested in hard-scrabble reporting and more interested in supporting roles. Just as Watergate fired up a generation of would-be investigators, so has the Internet attracted a generation that would rather work online than by knocking on actual doors and talking to actual sources.
Revival of the Watergate story reminds us that no amount of blogging and Web browsing can replace face-to-face contact with real sources, and no portfolio of computer expertise rivals an inquiring and skeptical mind and just plain hard work.
This is all too ironic, because a few paragraphs earlier, McKay makes the following statement, which a quick Internet search proves to be rather inaccurate, one could even say false.
Investigative reporting is practiced, and practiced well, at a handful of major newspapers and magazines. Seymour Hersh, who uncovered the Mai Lai massacre in 1969, revealed the Abu Ghraib scandal 35 years later for The New Yorker.
Yes, Hersh wrote about Abu Ghraib in the New Yorker, but as Hersh himself explained in that very article, he did not "reveal" the scandal, it was 60 minutes that did so.
After the story broke on CBS last week, the Pentagon announced that Major General Geoffrey Miller, the new head of the Iraqi prison system, had arrived in Baghdad and was on the job.
In fact it was ironically Mary Mapes, that very same 60 Minutes producer who produced the famous "fake but accurate" Bush Air National Guard memo. But even that isn't entirely accurate, since CNN had reported several months earlier that the Army was investigating reports of abuse, including pictures of detainees. The Mudville Gazette (yes, those evil bloggers) has a good round up of this story. Perhaps in the modern media world overhyping and publicizing a story is now the same as breaking it, or perhaps Mr. McKay should spend more time "blogging and web browsing" Maybe then he could get his stories straight?
UPDATE: For an example of Seymour Hersh's "well practiced" investigative reporting techniques, check out this story.
There are two Hershes, really. Seymour M. is the byline. He navigates readers through the byzantine world of America’s overlapping national-security bureaucracies, and his stories form what Hersh has taken to calling an “alternative history” of the Bush administration since September 11, 2001.
Then there’s Sy. He’s the public speaker, the pundit. On the podium, Sy is willing to tell a story that’s not quite right, in order to convey a Larger Truth. “Sometimes I change events, dates, and places in a certain way to protect people,” Hersh told me. “I can’t fudge what I write. But I can certainly fudge what I say.”
One more reason Europe is doomed
I am sorry, maybe I am one of those Neanderthal American neo-cons, but there is no way I am putting on a pink flowered shirt.
PARIS (AFP) - Macho man is an endangered species, with today's male more likely to opt for a pink flowered shirt and swingers' clubs than the traditional role as family super-hero, fashion industry insiders say.
A study along these lines led by French marketing and style consultants Nelly Rodi was unveiled to Fashion Group International during a seminar Tuesday on future strategy for the fashion industry in Europe.
"The masculine ideal is being completely modified. All the traditional male values of authority, infallibility, virility and strength are being completely overturned," said Pierre Francois Le Louet, the agency's managing director.
Instead today's males are turning more towards "creativity, sensitivity and multiplicity," as seen already in recent seasons on the catwalks of Paris and Milan.
PARIS (AFP) - Macho man is an endangered species, with today's male more likely to opt for a pink flowered shirt and swingers' clubs than the traditional role as family super-hero, fashion industry insiders say.
A study along these lines led by French marketing and style consultants Nelly Rodi was unveiled to Fashion Group International during a seminar Tuesday on future strategy for the fashion industry in Europe.
"The masculine ideal is being completely modified. All the traditional male values of authority, infallibility, virility and strength are being completely overturned," said Pierre Francois Le Louet, the agency's managing director.
Instead today's males are turning more towards "creativity, sensitivity and multiplicity," as seen already in recent seasons on the catwalks of Paris and Milan.
The Jayson Awards
Don Luskin's Jayson Awards are out for the worst examples of Paul Krugman's writings. I entered but didn't win. Damn, I wanted a free Krugman Truth Squad sweatshirt for B school, all I got was a consolation e-mail from Don.
Tuesday, June 07, 2005
Would anyone die for Europe?
I have found the European soldiers that I have worked with competent, if not overly motivated. Let's face, it is hard enough to get people to sacrifice and die for their own country, much less the vague notion of a "European Union" Joschka Fischer, the German foreign minister says they will die for Europe.
BERLIN, June 6 - Does Europe have a soul? Would anybody die for Europe?
Germany's foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, was asked those questions the other day by an American wondering whether the rejection of the European Union's constitution in France and the Netherlands last week meant that the European Union lacked a core, that it could never be to its citizens what the United States is to Americans.
"European soldiers," Mr. Fischer said, answering the question about who dies for Europe. European soldiers are facing danger in Afghanistan, Bosnia and Kosovo, he continued, speaking at a forum at the American Academy in Berlin. They are there as members of national contingents, but they are serving a wider interest - Europe's.
"There is a soul," Mr. Fischer said. "There is a sprit. And people die for Europe, and have died."
The truth is though, that European casualties have been minimal for all 3 of those operations, and none were a result of combat operations. It took the EU 9 years to get the courage up to take over SFOR operations in Bosnia. Ask the people of Srebrenica what they feel about the courage and capabilities of European peacekeepers.
Also keep in mind that several European countries, unlike the US still have compulsory military service. So they haven't had to worry about whether people wanted to die for the EU. In many cases, they had no choice.
BERLIN, June 6 - Does Europe have a soul? Would anybody die for Europe?
Germany's foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, was asked those questions the other day by an American wondering whether the rejection of the European Union's constitution in France and the Netherlands last week meant that the European Union lacked a core, that it could never be to its citizens what the United States is to Americans.
"European soldiers," Mr. Fischer said, answering the question about who dies for Europe. European soldiers are facing danger in Afghanistan, Bosnia and Kosovo, he continued, speaking at a forum at the American Academy in Berlin. They are there as members of national contingents, but they are serving a wider interest - Europe's.
"There is a soul," Mr. Fischer said. "There is a sprit. And people die for Europe, and have died."
The truth is though, that European casualties have been minimal for all 3 of those operations, and none were a result of combat operations. It took the EU 9 years to get the courage up to take over SFOR operations in Bosnia. Ask the people of Srebrenica what they feel about the courage and capabilities of European peacekeepers.
Also keep in mind that several European countries, unlike the US still have compulsory military service. So they haven't had to worry about whether people wanted to die for the EU. In many cases, they had no choice.
Hillary Chimes In
Econopundit points out that now Hillary is commenting on how "people [are] staying unemployed longer". I'll have to check out if Brad DeLong is defending her. But once again, she is missing the point, that even if the average is up, the fact is considerably less people are unemployed for long amounts of time.
Percent Of Civilian Labor Force Unemployed 15 Weeks & over
John Kerry: Intellectual
No wonder he didn't want his records released. I thought Bush was supposed to be the dumb one. Although I always found it ironic that people criticize someone with a Harvard MBA as "dumb". Heck, I could only get into UW.
WASHINGTON -- During last year's presidential campaign, John F. Kerry was the candidate often portrayed as intellectual and complex, while George W. Bush was the populist who mangled his sentences.
But newly released records show that Bush and Kerry had a virtually identical grade average at Yale University four decades ago.
In 1999, The New Yorker published a transcript indicating that Bush had received a cumulative score of 77 for his first three years at Yale and a roughly similar average under a non-numerical rating system during his senior year.
Kerry, who graduated two years before Bush, got a cumulative 76 for his four years, according to a transcript that Kerry sent to the Navy when he was applying for officer training school. He received four D's in his freshman year out of 10 courses, but improved his average in later years.
Let's not forget, he studied at a boarding school in Switzerland, and took summer vacations in France, where his family owned an estate. And this was the best he could manage ?!
His top score was a 79, in another political science course. Another of his strongest efforts, a 77, came in French class.
WASHINGTON -- During last year's presidential campaign, John F. Kerry was the candidate often portrayed as intellectual and complex, while George W. Bush was the populist who mangled his sentences.
But newly released records show that Bush and Kerry had a virtually identical grade average at Yale University four decades ago.
In 1999, The New Yorker published a transcript indicating that Bush had received a cumulative score of 77 for his first three years at Yale and a roughly similar average under a non-numerical rating system during his senior year.
Kerry, who graduated two years before Bush, got a cumulative 76 for his four years, according to a transcript that Kerry sent to the Navy when he was applying for officer training school. He received four D's in his freshman year out of 10 courses, but improved his average in later years.
Let's not forget, he studied at a boarding school in Switzerland, and took summer vacations in France, where his family owned an estate. And this was the best he could manage ?!
His top score was a 79, in another political science course. Another of his strongest efforts, a 77, came in French class.
Thursday, June 02, 2005
Journalism's evolving standards
A telling quote from the Okrent-Krugman wars.
On 6/8/04, I made a numerical mistake, reading from the wrong line in a table of tax rates during the Reagan years. Although the mistake didn’t change the column’s conclusions, I reluctantly issued a correction. But I forgot to use the word “correction,” which I hear got Mr. Okrent upset.
Now since Krugman admits that he made a mistake, innocent or otherwise, why was he "reluctant" to make a correction, or whatever he wants to call it?
On 6/8/04, I made a numerical mistake, reading from the wrong line in a table of tax rates during the Reagan years. Although the mistake didn’t change the column’s conclusions, I reluctantly issued a correction. But I forgot to use the word “correction,” which I hear got Mr. Okrent upset.
Now since Krugman admits that he made a mistake, innocent or otherwise, why was he "reluctant" to make a correction, or whatever he wants to call it?
The C3PO Award
Don Luskin is running a contest for the best (worst) Paul Krugman quote, in 6 different categories. Another reader suggested a 7th category, I propose a 8th, inspired by an Eidelblog post, the C3PO "We are doomed" award for paranoid negativism. Here are a couple I can come up with off hand.
"Without the Bush tax cuts, it would have been difficult to cope with the fiscal implications of an aging population. With those tax cuts, the task is simply impossible. The accident — the fiscal train wreck — is already under way."
"So what happens if the housing bubble bursts? It will be the same thing all over again, unless the Fed can find something to take its place. And it's hard to imagine what that might be. After all, the Fed's ability to manage the economy mainly comes from its ability to create booms and busts in the housing market. If housing enters a post-bubble slump, what's left?"
"But in any case it was Mr. Cheney, speaking last weekend, who gave us our first post-election hints about Mr. Bush's economic policy. And the news is not good. "
"For a generation Americans have depended on a superb volunteer Army to keep us safe - both from our enemies, and from the prospect of a draft. What will we do once that Army is broken?"
"Of course, the coming of the New Deal was hastened by a severe national depression. Strange to say, we may be working on that, too."
"But the American military isn't just bogged down in Iraq; it's deteriorating under the strain. We may already be in real danger: what threats, exactly, can we make against the North Koreans? That John Bolton will yell at them? And every year that the war goes on, our military gets weaker."
The only problem with this idea is how do you choose? There are too many possiblities, just about every column. Most of these are just from the last month.
"Without the Bush tax cuts, it would have been difficult to cope with the fiscal implications of an aging population. With those tax cuts, the task is simply impossible. The accident — the fiscal train wreck — is already under way."
"So what happens if the housing bubble bursts? It will be the same thing all over again, unless the Fed can find something to take its place. And it's hard to imagine what that might be. After all, the Fed's ability to manage the economy mainly comes from its ability to create booms and busts in the housing market. If housing enters a post-bubble slump, what's left?"
"But in any case it was Mr. Cheney, speaking last weekend, who gave us our first post-election hints about Mr. Bush's economic policy. And the news is not good. "
"For a generation Americans have depended on a superb volunteer Army to keep us safe - both from our enemies, and from the prospect of a draft. What will we do once that Army is broken?"
"Of course, the coming of the New Deal was hastened by a severe national depression. Strange to say, we may be working on that, too."
"But the American military isn't just bogged down in Iraq; it's deteriorating under the strain. We may already be in real danger: what threats, exactly, can we make against the North Koreans? That John Bolton will yell at them? And every year that the war goes on, our military gets weaker."
The only problem with this idea is how do you choose? There are too many possiblities, just about every column. Most of these are just from the last month.
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