Monday, April 26, 2010

Is Keynesian Theory Dead Yet?

It didn't work in the 30's, it didn't work during the lost decade in Japan, it didn't work now. I know economics is a soft science, but still...

In latest quarterly survey by the National Association for Business Economics, the index that measures employment showed job growth for the first time in two years -- but a majority of respondents felt the fiscal stimulus had no impact.

NABE conducted the study by polling 68 of its members who work in economic roles at private-sector firms. About 73% of those surveyed said employment at their company is neither higher nor lower as a result of the $787 billion Recovery Act, which the White House's Council of Economic Advisers says is on track to create or save 3.5 million jobs by the end of the year.

5 comments:

Lonnie Bruner said...

Right, so they polled 68 members from an organization who basically anyone can join.

http://www.nabe.com/join.htm#who

"Who Can Join NABE®?

Any person with an interest in business economics is eligible for membership ..."

I think a better judge of the Stimulus is Moody's or IHS Global Insight:

"Just look at the outside evaluations of the stimulus. Perhaps the best-known economic research firms are IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers and Moody’s Economy.com. They all estimate that the bill has added 1.6 million to 1.8 million jobs so far and that its ultimate impact will be roughly 2.5 million jobs. The Congressional Budget Office, an independent agency, considers these estimates to be conservative."

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/17/business/economy/17leonhardt.html

A year ago, the economy was in near collapse. It's now on course for full recovery precisely because of Keynesianism.

James B. said...

Right, are these the same guys who claimed that the unemployment rate would go over 8% if we DIDN'T have a stimulus?

With a $787 billion bill that works out to nearly $500,000 per job. It would have been more economical to pay 15 million people $50,000 a year to sit home and play World of Warcraft all day.

None of those estimates are based on any actual data. All they do is take the very same theory of Keynesian multipliers and calculate the effect based on how much money they spent, coming up with a number that validates the very same theory it is using to make the calculation, in a perfectly circular argument.

裕以 said...

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東慶天芳 said...

發表,是一種抒發:好的心情可以一再的回味發酵;壞的心情就讓它留在文字裡吧!加油!........................................

OliveWol8888 said...

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